David Paton, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @cricketwyvern

David Paton

cricketwyvern

It's now 18 days since *non-essential* retail, gyms, hairdressers & outdoor pubs/cafes/restaurants opened in step 2 of the roadmap in England. So plenty of time to see any effect on

A new national lockdown would have devastating effects on the economy, businesses, jobs, isolation, loneliness, mental health.Even if infections were increasing rapidly, it would not be a proportionate response. But

The Scottish Chief Medical Officer’s Covid-19 Note giving the evidence base for the new restrictions makes for remarkable reading.It indicates new infections in Scotland could reach over 35k per day

The briefing showed recent trends in France & Spain & then showed that the UK would have 49k cases per day if they doubled every week.49k per day is a

Whether or not you think local lockdowns work (& the evidence so far is ... not great), given the huge costs they impose, they should only be considered when there

Cases have indeed increased sharply in Bolton since 25 Aug.Given the spectacular failure of the existing local lockdown (in place since early August) in preventing cases increasing, the obvious question

Some Northern lockdown charts of new cases by test date + 7-day ave (subject to change after 30 July).Couple of points to note:1. Effect of lockdown would not be observed

That areas with some of the highest death rates also had strict lockdowns (Spain, New York) indicates that we are unlikely to find lockdowns had a very large impact on

How should governments evaluate lockdowns as a policy?Jury is out on whether lockdowns significantly decrease cases & deaths relative to other measures (e.g. social distancing, hygiene, limiting big events)However we

Discredited is right.Take 13th July: ONS (should be pretty much complete for then) show 35 deaths in England on that date. PHE report 79, 125% higher.Worse, the difference is getting

I'm seeing people worrying about new cases increasing.The England 7-day ave by specimen date for 9th July (later dates unreliable as more cases to come) is indeed up from the

Not that late after all: update to English hospital deaths by day-of-death.Looks like final daily totals now at about 120-130. 25 & 26 May perhaps a little more, then hopefully