Adam Kucharski, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @AdamJKucharski

Adam Kucharski

AdamJKucharski

The response to the 1918 pandemic had some remarkably familiar features, as described in this 2010 article (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2862334/#__ffn_sectitle). For example, there was debate about the effectiveness of mask

I’m seeing some fatalism creep in around whether contact tracing system/app will work. But remember, most the reduction in transmission is likely to come from the first step - when

New analysis of sequence data suggests the current US COVID-19 outbreak sparked in mid-Feb. As well as providing insights how the epidemic started, I think this has some important implications

I want to tell you a story about a mathematician you’ve probably never heard of, but whose work has helped shape a lot of what we’re taking about today... 1/

A common criticism of population-based epidemic models is that they don't account for individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. superspreading events). But how much of a problem is this? 1/ For

Is the reproduction number currently 0.7, or 0.85, or 0.641? Was it bigger yesterday than today? A thread on real-time estimation and false precision... 1/ Most real-time estimation of R

Interesting preliminary COVID data from Australia. Small numbers, but potentially suggestive of limited transmission to and from children... http://www.ncirs.org.au/covid-19-in-schools One notable caveat is it looks like the primary cases were

Our new preliminary analysis looks at the potential impact of various isolation, contact tracing, testing, and physical distancing measures on COVID-19, using social interaction data from over 40,000 people in

This modelling study from Sweden suggests 26% of Stockholm county will have been infected by May 1st (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/2da059f90b90458d8454a04955d1697f/skattning-peakdag-antal-infekterade-covid-19-utbrottet-stockholms

Recent estimates (including our analysis led by @timwrussell: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256) have suggested 0.5–1% of COVID-19 infections may potentially be fatal overall. Some have interpreted this

I'm seeing more and more suggestions that contact tracing and/or physical distancing isn't needed and we could solve COVID-19 with widespread testing alone. E.g. just test everyone once a week/fortnight

Interesting new data from NYC - 215 pregnant women were tested for COVID-19 upon admission. 33 tested positive at arrival (15%), and of those who tested positive, 26/34 had no