Adam Kucharski, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @AdamJKucharski

Adam Kucharski

AdamJKucharski

Suppose we have a SARS-CoV-2 variant that is inherently more transmissible, and another that is more likely to reinfect people who've previously developed immunity. Which will spread more easily? A

How long does immunity to SARS-CoV-2 last (and how long might it last in future)? A few thoughts... 1/ We now have data from several cohort studies showing responses can

If populations are highly vaccinated, we'd expect a higher proportion of future cases to have been previously vaccinated (because by definition, there aren't as many non-vaccinated people around to be

There’s still uncertainty about how much protection various COVID vaccines give against certain variants of concern (e.g. B.1.351 identified in SA & P.1 in Brazil). So where will new real-life

Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... 1/ As an example,

Relaxing UK COVID-19 control measures over the Christmas period will inevitably create more transmission risk. There are four main things that will influence just how risky it will be... 1/

If epidemic growing, question isn’t really ‘are more restrictions needed?’ The question is ‘given restrictions will eventually have to come in, do you want to have COVID at a high

There are two main ways to estimate the reproduction number for SARS-CoV-2, and I'd like to discuss the one that doesn't get so much attention... 1/ Most reported R values

I think the below modelling output provides a useful illustration of how to evaluate forecasts. A short thread... 1/https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1303011885348990976?s=20 First, let's be clear about difference between a '

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown power of open data and analytics in research, but these activities often aren't recognised in traditional academic metrics. New perspective piece with @rozeggo & @sbfnk:

A short thread about a dead salmon and implausible claims based on epidemic curves... 1/ A few years ago, some researchers famously put an Atlantic salmon in an fMRI machine

'Herd immunity' has been reached during previous epidemics of influenza, measles and seasonal coronaviruses. But it's subsequently been lost (and then regained). What are some of the reasons for this?