https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📊" title="Balkendiagramm" aria-label="Emoji: Balkendiagramm">New Holyrood projection https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> (including all post-Alba Party launch polling)

Core projection:

SNP majority of 3
Pro-independence majority of 19 (1/5)

If an election were held today, the SNP would be on course for their respective best showings since the advent of devolution (2/5)

Scottish Labour, despite Anas Sarwar& #39;s strong performances so far, remain set to lose their three constituency seats. The SNP are also narrow favourites to win Ayr, Edinburgh Central, and Aberdeenshire West (3/5)

The SNP& #39;s win % by & #39;marginal& #39; seat (seat with >20% chance of gaining):

Dumbarton - 83%
Edin Southern - 71%
East Lothian - 69%
Ayr - 60%
Edin Central - 56%
Abnshire West - 54%
Galloway & West Dumfries - 45%
Dumfriesshire - 44%
Eastwood - 44%
Edin Western - 34%
NE Fife - 23%
(4/5)

Lots of very fine margins on the regional list, as ever. List seat 7 in H&I could go Tory, Green, or to Andy Wightman (though it& #39;s impossible to measure his support through polling). Alba have a <50% of winning seats on their current polling average (5/5)