Read on Twitter
Ostentatious military exercises and coded language out of Moscow indicate #Russia may be considering a conventional ground forces deployment to #Syria.
My latest for @TheStudyofWar explores this unlikely, but dangerous possibility: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-may-deploy-conventional-forces-syria">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun...
A Russian conventional deployment would likely be intended to leverage Turkey into ceding portions of opposition-held #Idlib in negotiations, after Russia and Turkey failed to strike a deal in September.
A Russian unit, if deployed, could also participate in a pro-Assad regime offensive, exploiting a regime chemical weapons attack or enabling an assault on Jisr al-Shughour.
In the past month, the Russian Center for Reconciliation in Syria has baselessly and repeatedly claimed that #HTS is planning a false-flag chemical attack in Idlib. Such claims have preceded prior regime chemical attacks, likely to muddy attribution.
Meanwhile, an unusual number of battalion-sized units in Russia& #39;s Southern and Western Military Districts have practiced operating in a chemical weapons environment, in Russia& #39;s #kavkaz2020 exercises and in simultaneous and subsequent snap exercises.
