Thread by @VPrasadMDMPH, A terrific, courageous and data-driven article, but reading the comments is painful.A [...]

A terrific, courageous and data-driven article, but reading the comments is painful.

A few thoughts...

[Thread] https://twitter.com/ProfEmilyOster/status/1314572214621143040">https://twitter.com/ProfEmily...

https://twitter.com/ProfEmilyOster/status/1314572214621143040

The intervention is Closing Schools. Let& #39;s be clear.

And it is not closing all schools, it is closing public schools, while private and charter and day-care run.

I.e. the question is: what is the delta Years of Life gained from closing public schools?

The data on viral spread comes from multiple lines of research; from contract tracing studies to meta-analyses of spread when households are infected

These all suggest that children do not drive massive viral spread. @apsmunro

Detailed here: https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep315">https://soundcloud.com/plenaryse...

The absolute risk to school age kids themselves is very low from sars-cov-2

Probably why private schools are running https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep315">https://soundcloud.com/plenaryse...

Powerful anecdotal cases that seem to suggest otherwise (Georgia, SK, Israel) are threadbare. They are often no more sophisticated then saying if A occurred before B, A caused B.

Alternative explanations incd. when the camp began many were infected, not that they got it there

Now, let& #39;s talk about harms to kids from closure. These span so many domains it makes you head spin.

From social to cognitive development to detection of physical and sexual abuse, to education.

Details here: https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep313">https://soundcloud.com/plenaryse...

Limited available data shows virtual schools are not nearly as good, and they are entirely contingent on having wi-fi, space, a router, and social support

https://edworkingpapers.org/sites/default/files/ai20-250.pdf">https://edworkingpapers.org/sites/def...

Closing public schools is thus likely to have a very tiny delta on viral harms, and a massive delta on children harms, and these are suffered by poor, minority, vulnerable children.

A sober analysis yields the conclusion that @ProfEmilyOster has reached

This should be an issue that unites progressives and conservatives, but it has become a referendum on Trump

This is sad outcome.

Pitting one& #39;s hate for Trump against one& #39;s love for kids. And we see which wins.

It& #39;s disappointing to watch & #39;Public health& #39; which is meant to champion the weak and vulnerable become a tool to subjugate them, to ensure they are trapped in poverty, uneducated, and in homes where abuse is present.

I was entirely agnostic on this issue till I began reading papers in all the buckets

Role of education in lives of kids

Role of school 5-16 yo in viral spread

How school board politics work (disgusting)

We have to run public schools for kids 5-16 (this we can all agree on)

We can mitigate, not eliminate risk

We can give some older, vulnerable teachers a pass, if they so choose

But we have to make it work

This is the pressing public health crisis in the USA in the fall of 2020, and it is unique in that it is largely caused in the name of public health

Kudos to @ProfEmilyOster for retaining objectivity and courage to fight on this issue

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