It& #39;s obviously true that Trump can still win. What& #39;s also true, and where the analysis should focus (because we aren& #39;t fortune-tellers), is that if he does come back, he& #39;ll have to do so from a weaker position than he held at this time in & #39;16, according to a broad set of metrics.

FWIW: That& #39;s what I see the overwhelming share of political reporters saying.

People will say this moment reminds them of 2016. Sure, I guess! It also reminds *me* of 2018, during the BK hearings, when Ds began freaking out that they were blowing a winnable election

Maybe - and just hear me out on this - it& #39;s a whole new election that isn& #39;t bound in some cosmic way to the last presidential election ... and that what came before doesn& #39;t necessarily need to inform every twist and turn of 2020 analysis. It& #39;s a new race - we& #39;re all flying blind!