Read on Twitter
1/ The dishonesty linking Victoria& #39;s rise in #covid19aus cases and #BLMprotest needs to stop NOW. It& #39;s being perpetrated by media/politicians and parroted by the public. The lies divide us at a time we need unity. Here are 2 big lies (LONG thread, why would you read this):
2/ Lie 1 - Protests caused transmission, facilitating current rise.
Fact - Only 4 cases are associated with protests. None yet causally linked by state/fed authorities. I don& #39;t think they& #39;re lying. Both LITERALLY TOLD PEOPLE TO NOT ATTEND PROTESTS & have no reason to cover up.
Fact - Only 4 cases are associated with protests. None yet causally linked by state/fed authorities. I don& #39;t think they& #39;re lying. Both LITERALLY TOLD PEOPLE TO NOT ATTEND PROTESTS & have no reason to cover up.
3/ This would be the PERFECT opportunity for them to say "i told you so". It would make their job easier. But they& #39;re sticking to the evidence.
Another argument supporting this lie - & #39;Maybe the protests DID cause spread that& #39;s not captured through testing& #39; OK let& #39;s play:
Another argument supporting this lie - & #39;Maybe the protests DID cause spread that& #39;s not captured through testing& #39; OK let& #39;s play:
4/ Assume there was spread, and protesters didn& #39;t get tested (btw they did - I served them at #covid19aus testing clinics). And because mostly younger protesters& #39;ll get few/no symptoms, we wouldn& #39;t see it& #39;s impact till much later when they transmit to older/sicker ppl, right?
5/ This argument serves to address the lack of evidence for the negative impact of protests so far. This argument is currently unfalsifiable - but that& #39;s a weakness of the argument, not a strength. But also consider the opposite case. Let& #39;s make an assumption for just 1 second:
8/ Let& #39;s assume that there was ZERO transmission at the #BLM protests. If this were true, what would we expect the data to show today? 0 connected cases. And 0 causually linked cases. What data do we have today? 4 linked, 0 causually linked. It& #39;s pretty damn close.
9/ A better question: what data truly WOULD satisfy people, today, that would make them believe that #BlackLivesMatterAustralia didn& #39;t set off this rise in cases in Vic? I& #39;m not saying it& #39;s not possible. I& #39;m it& #39;s disingenuous at this point to link them w/scant evidence. But:
10/ Did the protests & #39;send the wrong message& #39; causing broader complacency? & #39;If 10,000 ppl can congregate, then I should be able to have 20 ppl over& #39;. Although I don& #39;t know, yes- its possible. But can we see the problem is still the attitude/knowledge of people getting complacent?
11/ If so, I& #39;m glad we are attributing accountability to everyone involved, not just the protesters. Interesting double standard here btw: The protesters are irresponsible. But people who & #39;got the wrong message& #39; seen as hapless idiots obeying cues like the Manchurian Candidate.
12/ These people, who apparently got the wrong message, presumably also saw the widespread use of masks? So did the protests have a positive effect on awareness too? While we& #39;re going to speculate in the absence of evidence, let& #39;s consider that too. Next lie:
12/ Lie 2 is that the Victorian government essentially gave the protests a green light. This is ridiculous on many levels. Firstly, both @VictorianCHO and @DanielAndrewsMP told people MULTIPLE times to NOT ATTEND THE PROTESTS. Warning it was high risk and could set us back.
13/ People are interpreting these statements as tacit support because the protests still happened. They should have stopped them at all costs, right?
People forget the anarchic fury of #BlackLivesMatter
https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> riots in USA that catalyzed global protests in the first place.
People forget the anarchic fury of #BlackLivesMatter
14/ There were both riots and peaceful protests. And the American police made the ingenious decision to respond to a movement against police brutality by responding with... police brutality. Things got much worse. In view of this case study, what should Aus authorities have done?
15/ Should they& #39;ve used pepper spray? Fire hose? Arrest thousands of people to give fines? The atmosphere was potentially combustible. What would crowd chaos do to #covid19aus transmission? To physically enforce against #BlackLivesMatter https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> protests would have been dangerous.
16/ Not to mention a double standard - 5G/antivax protesters were not shut down. And the medical/health community, who have arguably the most right to be enraged by these *lunatics* did not call for them to be shut either. Because we understand backfire, harm minimisation, and..
17/ Many of us also understand the ethical problem with banning protests, even ones we think could be harmful. Anyway, back to the cause of the rise in #covid19vic: CHO and premier have said repeatedly that it& #39;s transmission in/between families.
18/ We have a plausible, provable explanation from health authorities re: #covid19 rise. Instead disingenuous blame of #BlackLivesMatter https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> protests continues. It achieves nothing. It& #39;s divides people, plays off state vs state and the two levels of government. We must move forward.
