There’s often a moment in the third act of a Hitchcock thriller – “the big reveal” – when the scales fall from the eyes of the hapless central character & he realises the answer he’s been searching for has been in front of his nose all along. That is how I felt last Thursday. /1
Before I go on with this #THREAD, I should make clear, I’m NOT a scientist.

Two months ago, what I knew about epidemiology, virology & communicable diseases
could have been written on the back of a postage stamp. /2
(Video by @markhumphries) #COVID19
I started becoming more concerned about #coronavirus in late February after talking to a friend who’s husband is a scientist. Then, in early March, I stumbled into something which had implications far greater than anything I could& #39;ve imaged at the time. /3 https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1239099604228071424">https://twitter.com/StefSiman...
The THREADhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Up pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Up pointing backhand index">is 60 tweets long.
Worth a read, but to sum up: I dug up the PM’s #TakeItOnTheChin comments & they went viral.

I didn& #39;t think he was seriously suggesting “allowing #COVID19 to pass though the population”.

But a week later the #HerdImmunity strategy was unveiled. /4
Suddenly, it became clear that the loose thread that I’d stated gently tugging on - like that unsuspecting character in the Hitchcock film – was connected to one of the most controversial strategies attempted by any country in response to the #COVID19 pandemic: herd immunity. /5
Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large % of a population becomes immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination.

#HerdImmunity without a vaccine is, by definition, not a preventative measure. /6
But herd immunity was so controversial that ministers avoided referring to it at the time & have denied it was a policy ever since.

Days after it was unveiled on 12/3, an error in the modelling forced the govt to perform a U-turn on the grounds that “the science had changed.” /7
In reality, the modellers at Imperial College had realised they’d underestimated the speed of transmission of #COVID & unless steps were taken, the NHS might be overwhelmed.

Some scientists, however, argue that the underlying strategy remains the same. /8 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19">https://www.theguardian.com/commentis...
Despite what Matt Hancock says, the government's policy is still herd immunity | Anthony Costello

We need a community surveillance programme to stop the spread of Covid-19, says Anthony Costello, professor of global health at UCL

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19
Rather than trying to completely suppress the number infections, some argue that the real strategy was to allow #COVID19 to spread through the population slowly without overwhelming healthcare capacity.

This was the reason for the late lockdown, not banning public events etc. /8
Knowing this strategy would have a heavy toll in lives & was a big gamble - after all no one knows if how long immunity lasts & there’ve been reports of reinfections - perhaps the govt chose not to make it public.

It was never said publicly but “protect the economy” was key. /9
Knowing this strategy would have a heavy toll in lives & was a big gamble - after all no one knows if how long immunity lasts & there’ve been reports of reinfections - perhaps the govt chose not to make it public.It was never said publicly but “protect the economy” was key. /9
Knowing this strategy would have a heavy toll in lives & was a big gamble - after all no one knows if how long immunity lasts & there’ve been reports of reinfections - perhaps the govt chose not to make it public.It was never said publicly but “protect the economy” was key. /9
Knowing this strategy would have a heavy toll in lives & was a big gamble - after all no one knows if how long immunity lasts & there’ve been reports of reinfections - perhaps the govt chose not to make it public.It was never said publicly but “protect the economy” was key. /9
Knowing this strategy would have a heavy toll in lives & was a big gamble - after all no one knows if how long immunity lasts & there’ve been reports of reinfections - perhaps the govt chose not to make it public.It was never said publicly but “protect the economy” was key. /9
Protecting the economy is vital, but those arguing against a "herd immunity without vaccine" strategy make clear that it would involve, in the words of one epidemiologisthttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">"sacrificing the vulnerable on the altar of the economy in truly vast numbers”. /10 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/herd-immunity-is-a-fatal-strategy-we-should-avoid-at-all-costs?CMP=share_btn_tw">https://www.theguardian.com/commentis...
Herd immunity is a fatal strategy we should avoid at all costs | Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz

It would require us to sacrifice the vulnerable on the altar of the economy in vast numbers

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/herd-immunity-is-a-fatal-strategy-we-should-avoid-at-all-costs?CMP=share_btn_tw
It is important to recognise that every way forward comes with a cost.

Lockdowns damage the economy & they still leave people vulnerable to future waves of #COVID19.

Ultimately, whichever strategy chosen is a political as much as a scientific one.

But the science is vital. /11
Every minister in every press conference is flanked by senior medics & scientists & starts every answer to every question saying: "We& #39;re guided by the science":

But many of the UK& #39;s top scientistshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">have raised concerns about who is at "the top table". /12 https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1248251362648952836">https://twitter.com/StefSiman...
For six weeks I& #39;d tried to piece it together. (See my frantic workings-out on my TL).

Why was the UK exporting tests?

Why did we stop community testing, tracking & tracing?

Why weren& #39;t we listening to top experts?

Then I got an anonymous tip off. /13 https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1242426814842261504">https://twitter.com/StefSiman...
"Have you seen @BorisJohnson& #39;s Greenwich speech from 3 February?" asked @seeds_we_sow.

I tracked it down.
It wasn’t hard.
It was Boris Johnson& #39;s landmark speech in which he set out his post-Brexit vision.

But what he said knocked my bloody socks off! /14 https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1250894405323628545">https://twitter.com/StefSiman...
I posted a cliphttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Up pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Up pointing backhand index">

But thishttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">is cleaner.

“There’s a risk that new diseases such as #coronavirus will trigger a panic & a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real & unnecessary economic damage.” /15
The PM& #39;s #TakeItOnTheChin comments got me asking questions.

His #GreenwichSpeech began to offer answers. But it also posed new questions.

Was this paragraph warning against medically irrational responses to #COVID19 & hinting UK will go it alone, a portend of #HerdImmunity?
/16
Ystdy, CMO said the only exit from #COVID19 is via a vaccine or drugs.

Prof Costello (ex-WHO director) wrote:

“The CMO is lukewarm on contact tracing. He appears committed only to social measures. This is still a #herdimmunity strategy. Managed spread.” https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1253295475526115329?s=21">https://twitter.com/stefsiman... https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1253295475526115329">https://twitter.com/StefSiman...
The PM’s #GreenwichSpeech clip I postedhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Up pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Up pointing backhand index">was viewed 1 million times in 36hrs but attracted no mainstream media coverage.

The #TakeItOnTheChin clip by contrast, was viewed 2.5m times in 36hrs before being denounced by The Sun & others it as “fake news” (it wasn’t). #COVID19 /18.
#BorisJohnson’s “Britain as Superman” rhetoric has echoes of the 2012 book written by Raab, Patel, Truss, Skidmore & Kwarteng, ‘Britannia Unchained’.

In 2019, @tes warned that Cummings’ “scientist-as-hero vision may misunderstand the nature of science”. http://bit.ly/31fT1qg https://bit.ly/31fT1qg&q... class="Emoji" style="height:16px;" src=" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">
Dominic Cummings’ science obsession: based on fact or fiction?

Boris Johnson’s most senior adviser appears to have big plans for the research community, but his ‘scientist-as-hero’ vision may misunderstand the nature of modern scholarship

http://bit.ly/31fT1qg
SAGE on 26/2:
“The majority of the population would then develop immunity, hopefully preventing any second wave, while reducing pressure on the NHS. However, SPI-M-O has not looked at the likely feasibility or effectiveness of such methods.” via @rad_econ
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873723/03-potential-effect-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-npis-on-a-Covid-19-epidemic-in-the-UK.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
These SAGE minutes from 26/2 (flagged by @rad_econ), shows that 2 weeks before #Herdimmunity is ‘unveiled’ by @Peston as the new govt #COVID19 policy on 12/3, SAGE didn’t have any data on its impact or effectiveness.

The SAGE minutes from 26/2 and 12/3 have not been disclosed.
SPI-M-O is the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling & reports to SAGE.

On 26 February, it appears from these notes that no SPI-M-O modellers had looked at #herdimmunity.

It was being looked at perhaps by @neil_ferguson at Imperial, but his modelling changed on 15/3.
For anyone confused, this virologist explains: “ #HerdImmunity makes sense as an outcome but NOT as a strategy.”

Peston (12/3): “The STRATEGY of the UK govt is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity.” /22
It’s helpful to watch these two @Channel4News interviews with Prof John Edmunds back-to-back.

The first (below) is from 28 April with @cathynewman

The second (in the following tweet) is from 13 March with @mattfrei

In each he talks about #HerdImmunity.
In this interview six weeks earlier, Prof John Edmunds is much more bullish as he dismisses the idea of a lockdown (“What for?”).

The man holding his head in his hands is @tomaspueyo whose modelling showed how vital lockdown is for combating #coronavirus.
The best Hitchcock thrillers contain a double plot twist where the hapless hero suddenly realises he’s fallen into a deliberate trap & has spent valuable time chasing shadows up a dead end alley.

That’s what I realised yesterday after a clue from the least likely of sources. /19
In what appears to be an unguarded moment, Steve Baker tweeted about the “genius” of Cummings’ strategy: creating controversies for the media to chase, in order to distract from other things (a deception technique magicans call “misdirection” & politicians call “politics”). /20
I say “appears” because, as this thread shows, things can’t be taken at face value.

The 2016 film ‘HyperNormalisation’, shows how Putin - advised by Vladislav Surkov - “turned Russian politics into a bewildering, constantly changing piece of theatre.” /21
There is speculation about Cummings’ links with Surkov allegedly forged during his “mysterious three years” in Russia.

But for now, back to Baker’s tweet.

It suggests that many of the things #COVID19 strategy critics are focused on are things that Cummings wants us to focus on.
This explains why, every morning, a govt minister would get savaged by @piersmorgan.

During the election campaign the PM simply refused to do @afneil show but now inexperienced ministers like @Helen_Whately are sent into the lions den twice in a week. /23 https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1250354411651485696?s=21">https://twitter.com/stefsiman... https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1250354411651485696">https://twitter.com/StefSiman...
Baker says Cummings uses controversy to keep things in the news, but crucially he’s also using it to keep other things out of the news.

Bizarre as it sounds, does Cummings want our focus to be on testing, PPE, care homes, airports etc in order to distract us from something else?
“Curiouser & curiouser. No one has any idea how deep this rabbit hole goes.” (Alice)

I’ve started another #THREADhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">which may carry on where this one leaves off...or go off on a tangent. #TakeItOnTheChin #HerdImmunityScandal #GreenwichSpeech #COVID19
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1258703564219826177?s=21">https://twitter.com/stefsiman... https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1258703564219826177">https://twitter.com/stefsiman...
Those of us attempting to make sense of the govt’s mind-bending #COVID strategy fall into two broad categories: the “conspiracy theorists" & the “cock-up theorists".

Their ACTUAL strategy uses cock-up to mask conspiracy...& we’re running out of time. /26
The last instalment of this #THREADhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Up pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Up pointing backhand index">finished on the cliffhanger: “We are deliberately being pulled into media storms in order to distract us from something else.”

The genius of the strategy is that people like me trying to foil the plot, are being used to fuel these storms. /27
There have been clues all along, but the chaotic way that #lockdown has been eased, seemly removes any shadow of a doubt.

Since news of it was leaked by the govt to the media on 6/5, it’s dominated the headlines culminating in the PM’s #StayAlert speech & the ensuing furore. /28
Anyone who works in govt comms will confirm that the #StayAlert confusion is not accidental

This messaging would have been worked on for weeks

The PM’s speech was carefully scripted & pre-recorded

Q&A’s would have been refined & practiced

They wanted to create confusion! /29
Putin’s strategist, Surkov, created an ongoing state of bewilderment.

Could the PM’s strategists be purposefully sewing confusion & controversy to distract from the new NHSX app which is being fast-tracked for public use, despite major privacy concerns?
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1257366549624688640?s=21">https://twitter.com/stefsiman... https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1257366549624688640">https://twitter.com/StefSiman...
Amidst confusion over the govt’s #StayAlert advice, detail of their 60-page #PlanToRebulid goes without scrutiny.

Yet proposals for “rapid re-engineering of govt structures & institutions” & building “new long-term foundations for UK” should perhaps set off some alarm bells. /31
Are there people in the shadows who recognise an opportunity to overhaul the machinery of govt & create a future where our every move, every word, every relationship is trackable, traceable & data-mineable by collaboration between govt & tech giants? /32. https://theintercept.com/2020/05/08/andrew-cuomo-eric-schmidt-coronavirus-tech-shock-doctrine/">https://theintercept.com/2020/05/0...
Under Cover of Mass Death, Andrew Cuomo Calls in the Billionaires to Build a High-Tech Dystopia

Big tech’s emerging pandemic shock doctrine demands heavy public subsidies for a no-touch, socially distanced coronavirus future.

https://theintercept.com/2020/05/08/andrew-cuomo-eric-schmidt-coronavirus-tech-shock-doctrine/
People have switched off the news & who can blame them?

There are so many complex issues, so many asinine slogans, so many failures

So 3 take aways from this thread:

1) #HerdImmunityScandal is still going

2) #TheyArePlayingUs

3) Listen to scientistshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index"> https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1259934762501898240?s=21">https://twitter.com/globalhlt...
Is Cummings trying to turn UK into a “managed democracy” like Surkov attempted in Russia?

We may never know.

Adam Curtis says: “It& #39;s a Strategy of Power that keeps any opposition constantly confused, a ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is indefinable." /34
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